Assessing the Transmission Potential of Spillover Infections

Date Thursday October 16, 2014 at 4:00 PM
Location 13-105 Center for the Health Sciences (CHS)
Speaker Adam Kucharski, Ph.D., Research Fellow, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Sponsoring Dept UCLA Biomathematics
Abstract ABSTRACT: Obtaining good estimates of transmission is crucial for effective surveillance and control of infectious diseases. However, when an infection transmits inefficiently between humans, estimates often have to be made using case data from a limited number of small outbreaks. I will talk about some of our recent work on the problem, which combines social contact surveys with multi-type branching processes to estimate the transmission potential of new infections. As well as covering the theoretical challenges involved, I will discuss how the work can be used to understand spillover infections such as monkeypox, influenza A(H5N1) and MERS-CoV.
Host: James Lloyd-Smith, Ph.D.

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Flyer Adam_Kucharski_20141016.pdf